Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats from $1,960 amid sluggish markets
- Gold Price fades week-start recovery, takes offers to refresh intraday low of late.
- Mixed sentiment allows XAU/USD to pare recent gains as US Treasury bond yields, US Dollar pause previous day’s fall.
- Risk catalysts, Fed bets eyed amid recent challenges for Gold price upside.
Gold Price (XAU/USD) takes offers to refresh intraday low near $1,959 as it reverses the week-start gains amid a sluggish Asian session on Tuesday. That said, a light calendar joins the absence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers’ speeches due to the pre-FOMC blackout period to restrict the catalysts of late.
Even so, challenges to the risk appetite from the hawkish central bank concerns and fresh fears suggesting that the large banks in the US need to hold more capital to battle the landing crisis seem to weigh on the sentiment and the XAU/USD price of late.
Additionally, fresh fears about the US-China tension, due to Taiwan concerns, join the escalating geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine to add to the risk-off mood, even if the pessimists aren’t too strong.
It’s worth noting, however, that the previous day’s downbeat US data weighs on the hawkish Fed bets and hence puts a floor under the Gold Price. On the same line could be China’s upbeat PMIs and hopes of more demand from one of the biggest XAU/USD consumers.
Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed in the red whereas S&P500 Futures print mild losses by the press time. Furthermore, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields remain pressured around 3.68%, after reversing Friday's rebound the previous day, whereas the two-year bond coupons also defend the week-start bearish bias near 4.46% by the press time.
Looking ahead, a light calendar and the Fed blackout may keep troubling the momentum traders. That said, the US Consumer Price Index for May, due on June 13, is the next major US economic release before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting on June 13-14.
Gold Price technical analysis
Gold price retreats from the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA) as the RSI (14) line retreats from the overbought territory. Adding strength to the hopes of witnessing the XAU/USD pullback is the receding bullish power of the MACD signals.
With this, the Gold price is likely to drop further towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of its May 30 to June 02 upside, respectively near $1,957 and $1,951.
However, a one-week-old horizontal support zone around $1,948 could challenge the Gold sellers afterward.
On the flip side, a clear break of the 100-HMA, around $1,963 at the latest, will allow the XAU/USD to prod the $1,973-75 resistance area comprising levels marked since May 31.
Overall, Gold price is likely to remain pressured for the short term but the downside room appears limited.
Gold price: Hourly chart
Trend: Limited downside expected