EUR/USD slipping back as the 1.1000 handle begins to look more like a ceiling that a goal
- The EUR/USD is cycling the 1.0990 level as Euro bidders lack the conviction to decisively reclaim 1.1000.
- Markets are still over leaning into risk-on territory, but weak points remain.
- Fedspeak and better-than-expected US GDP figures are cooling market hopes of accelerated Fed rate cuts.
The EUR/USD captured the 1.1000 major handle on Tuesday, but Euro (EUR) bidders couldn't maintain bullish momentum against the US Dollar (USD), and the pair fell back below the major handle to churn between 1.0990 and 1.0960 in Wednesday's trading session.
Wednesday's US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth print came in above expectations with real GDP growth printing at an annualized 5.2% against the forecast 5.0%, extending over the previous print of 4.9%.
EUR/USD set to grind around familiar levels ahead of European HICP
Thursday sees Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for November, followed by the US' Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index figures for October.
Eurozone HICP and US PCE are both expected to show a slow decline in headline inflation, with the MoM November HICP forecast to print at 3.9% compared to October's 4.2%, while the US Core October PCE is forecast to come in at 0.2% versus the previous 0.3%. Annualized US PCE inflation is expected to print at 3.5% for the year into October compared to the previous period's 3.7%.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD has been on a steady climb ever since the Euro crashed through the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.0800, and the pair is running into technical resistance from the 1.1000 handle.
With the 50-day SMA still drifting on the low side of the 200-day SMA, a bullish crossover of the two moving averages will go a long way towards providing technical support for a sustained move higher, though the EUR/USD may need to fall back into the 1.0850 region to kick that off.
The Euro has climbed over 5% against the US Dollar since October's swing low into 1.0450, and the EUR/USD is holding in the green for the year, but 2023's mid-year peak at 1.1275 is weighing on the long-term trend as the pair gets weighed down near 1.1000 with technical indicators leaning into overbought territory.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
EUR/USD Technical Levels